Everything about United States Senate Elections 2004 totally explained
The
United States Senate election, 2004 was an election for one-third of the seats in the
United States Senate which coincided with the
re-election of
George W. Bush as
president and the
United States House election, as well as many state and local elections. Senators who were elected in
1998, known as
Senate Class 3, were seeking reelection or retiring in 2004.
Republicans won six seats but lost two themselves, giving them a net gain of four seats: conservative Democrat
Zell Miller of
Georgia, who campaigned for President
Bush, chose not to run for re-election and Republican
Johnny Isakson won his seat; Democrat
Fritz Hollings of
South Carolina chose not to run for re-election and Republican
Jim DeMint succeeded him; Democratic Vice Presidential Nominee
John Edwards didn't run for re-election and Republican
Richard Burr won that seat; Democrat
Bob Graham chose not to run for re-election, and his seat went to Republican
Mel Martinez; Democrat
John Breaux chose not to run for re-election and Republican
David Vitter won his seat, and in
South Dakota, Republican
John Thune defeated the incumbent Senate minority leader
Tom Daschle. Republican Senator
Peter Fitzgerald of
Illinois chose not to run for re-election and Democrat
Barack Obama won a landslide, becoming the only black Senator and only the 3rd since
Reconstruction. Also, Republican Senator
Ben Nighthorse Campbell of
Colorado chose not to run for re-election and Democrat
Ken Salazar won the open seat.
Results, summary
Major parties
The Senate, as of the pre-election
108th Congress, was composed of 51
Republicans, 48
Democrats, and 1 independent. (The independent,
Jim Jeffords of
Vermont, was allied with the Democratic caucus and had voted with Democrats to give them the majority in the past.) The Democrats, therefore, needed to make a net gain of at least two seats from retiring or incumbent Republicans to gain control of the Senate. In the election, incumbent senators won reelection in all races but one (
Democratic leader Tom Daschle, in
South Dakota, lost to Republican
John Thune). The seats of retiring senators were taken by the opposing party in
Colorado,
Florida,
Georgia,
Illinois,
Louisiana,
North Carolina, and
South Carolina. In fact, the only retiring senator whose seat was taken by a member of his party was Republican
Don Nickles of
Oklahoma, who was succeeded by
Tom Coburn.
Republicans gained four seats in the 2004 elections, and entered the
109th Congress with a 55-44-1 lead. While such a majority is formidable, it's still less than the 60 seats needed to override a
filibuster and completely control the body's agenda and procedures.
Third and minor parties
The
Libertarian,
Constitution, and
Green parties contested many of the seats. No candidate from any of these parties received sufficient support to near election, but some may have affected the outcome of the Alaska and Florida races by drawing votes away from the major party candidates. Of the 34 senate seats up for grabs, the Libertarians ran candidates in 20 of the races, the Constitutionalists ran 10 candidates, and the Greens ran 7 candidates.
Minor parties in a number of states contested one or more Senate seats. Examples include the
America First Party, the
Labor Party, the
Peace and Freedom Party, and the
Socialist Workers Party. None of these parties gained a seat in this election nor received a significant number of votes.
Close races
Close Republican seats
One Republican seat, that of retiring Senator
Peter Fitzgerald in Illinois, was easily taken by Democrat
Barack Obama. In Colorado, retiring Senator
Ben Nighthorse Campbell's seat was narrowly taken by Democrat
Ken Salazar. In Alaska, Republican
Lisa Murkowski won reelection in a tight race. In Oklahoma,
Tom Coburn kept
Don Nickles' seat in Republican hands, while in Kentucky, the ailing Republican
Jim Bunning won a second term by a very narrow margin.
- Alaska: Tony Knowles lost by nearly 3% after staying in a statistical dead heat with incumbent Lisa Murkowski in opinion polling throughout the summer. Despite Alaska being a heavily Republican state, popular opinion had swung against the Murkowski family because of a tax increase passed by Lisa's father, Governor Frank Murkowski. Moreover, many voters disapproved of the manner in which Lisa Murkowski entered the Senate: she was appointed to the seat, previously held by her father, after he'd vacated that office following his election as governor. Knowles, who preceded the elder Murkowski as governor, had enlisted extensive out-of-state support for his bid to oust the younger Murkowski.
- Colorado: Democratic attorney general Ken Salazar maintained a small lead in polls over Republican brewing executive Pete Coors through the campaign, and ultimately prevailed. Salazar may have benefitted from an extended (and, by many descriptions, extraordinarily negative) Republican primary campaign between Coors and U.S. Representative Bob Schaffer.
- Kentucky: While Kentucky, like Alaska and Oklahoma, was a very conservative state, one-term incumbent Jim Bunning's increasingly erratic behavior brought long-shot Democrat Daniel Mongiardo into a dead heat in October, and the lead fluctuated as returns were reported on Election Night. There is widespread speculation that Bunning is in poor health and may retire before his second term ends, however, Bunning announced he'll seek a third term. If he does decide to retire, the Democratic governor, Steve Beshear, to nominate his replacement. If this does happen, Beshear himself would be a candidate for appointment.
- Oklahoma: Democratic Congressman Brad Carson had a slight lead in opinion polls over Republican Tom Coburn in the contest for retiring Sen. Don Nickles's seat. Although Oklahoma was a very conservative and Republican state, Coburn was weakened by a vicious primary campaign and a history of making provocative statements. Coburn pulled through with high turnout, eventually winning by a 12% margin.
Close Democratic seats
The Democrats' prospects were weakened by the fact that five of their six incumbent Senators in Southern states were retiring (the sixth,
Blanche Lincoln of
Arkansas, easily won reelection). Retiring Georgia Sen.
Zell Miller's seat, contested by
Denise Majette, was lost in a landslide, as was that of South Carolina Sen.
Ernest Hollings. In North Carolina, Democrat
Erskine Bowles lost
John Edwards's seat to Republican
Richard Burr. Especially close races, in Florida, Louisiana, and South Dakota, all resulted in turnovers to the Republicans.
Florida: After a heated primary race on both sides following Bob Graham's retirement, the Florida race was considered to be a tossup, with Democrat Betty Castor leading Republican Mel Martinez in statewide polls by a very slight margin. High Republican turnout, indicated by an unexpectedly large victory in Florida for President Bush, brought Martinez to victory.
Georgia: Zell Miller's seat was contested as fiercely as Graham's into the primary elections on July 20. Rep. Johnny Isakson won the Republican nomination; Rep. Denise Majette defeated her closest rival, Cliff Oxford, in a runoff for the Democratic nomination on August 10. Isakson, as predicted, won the general election by a comfortable margin.
Louisiana: John Breaux's seat was widely viewed as a tossup, although Louisiana's open primary system made it difficult to gauge who had the lead in the race. Only one Republican, Rep. David Vitter, was in the running; he was challenged by three major Democratic candidates, foremost among them Rep. Chris John. Although the Democrats' combined vote totalled 47%, Vitter won the absolute majority needed to avert a runoff election, becoming the first Republican Senator from Louisiana since Reconstruction (133 years).
North Carolina: Richard Burr in North Carolina faced Democrat Erskine Bowles for the seat John Edwards vacated for his vice-presidential bid. Early polling showed Bowles leading Burr by approximately 50% to 40%, largely due to Bowles' wider name recognition from his 2002 Senate run, but his lead evaporated in the weeks before the election. Burr unleashed a massive ad buy with six weeks until the election criticizing Bowles (a chief of staff to former President Clinton) for supporting NAFTA, which has been blamed for job losses in North Carolina. Burr pulled even in polls by Election Day, and won 52%-47%, which some election watchers attributed to President Bush's high vote total in North Carolina.
South Carolina: Although GOP confidence was supported by early polls showing Republican Rep. Jim DeMint to be several points ahead of Democratic nominee Inez Tenenbaum, the race tightened in late September. A factor in the tightening was DeMint's support of a proposal to replace the income tax with a national sales tax, which Tenenbaum heavily criticized. Nevertheless, DeMint won, 54%-44%.
South Dakota: Tom Daschle, then the Democratic floor leader, was challenged by John Thune. Daschle was a prime target for Republicans in Washington because he was the federal government's highest-ranking Democrat and because he was perceived to be obstructing President Bush's legislative proposals and judicial nominees. Polls showed a very tight race, with the lead fluctuating. The state's tendency toward conservatism in federal elections, as well as the Republicans' drive, made Daschle's race for reelection more difficult than most incumbents'. When Daschle indeed lost by a very narrow margin, he became the first Senate party leader to do so in more than a half century. (Democratic floor leader Ernest McFarland was defeated by Republican Barry Goldwater in the 1952 Senate elections.) The South Dakota race was the most expensive senatorial campaign in the country, with Daschle and Thune together raising more than $33 million.
Senate contests in 2004
Bold = Winning Candidate
= Democrat pickup
= Republican pickup
= Retiring Senator
Senate composition before and after elections
See also
United States gubernatorial elections, 2004
United States House elections, 2004
United States presidential election, 2004
United States Senate elections, 2002
United States Senate elections, 2006Further Information
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